Predictive Analytics: easily identify the cause of risk

By Joseph Artgole - July 02, 2021

Predictive analytics is increasingly being adopted by the market to derive a risk score and expected loss value when assessing new business and renewals. When Quest Marine provides these values, it also provides influential factors, which outline the overall influence of each source of risk relevant to the vessel. These were often grouped into positive and negative factors. Listening to customer feedback, we’ve now grouped influential factors into categories depending on the common area of risk they relate to, e.g. ownership, condition, etc. These categories are labelled ‘Risk Drivers’ and have been introduced as part of a June 2021 update. Anita Lam, Product Owner for Quest Marine Hull, discusses the categorisation of influential factors and how they benefit customers.

 

How does this change benefit Underwriters and Brokers in identifying the most significant areas of risk relevant to the vessel?

We have between 400 and 500 risk factors within our models. We’d previously shortlisted the most significant factors to consider for convenience, but at the cost of the less influential ones. Those less influential factors may combine to account for 40% of the risk, and therefore remain important. This change allows Underwriters to see the full picture before deciding where to investigate further. Risk Drivers provide a summary of influential factors for a holistic view of risk.

Underwriters and Brokers benefit through a broader and quicker understanding around what area(s) of risk carry the greatest influence on the vessel, fleet, or organisation. From here, specific individual factors, alongside their individual contribution, can be uncovered.

 

Risk Drivers Social

 

For a longer version of this video, click here.

 

How did you decide on the specific categories implemented and what influential factors are contained within them?

To understand data quickly, and apply it to an existing business practice, you need familiarity as well as effective categorisation. Influential factors were therefore grouped depending on their common associations, as well as traditional areas of consideration. These terms are drawn from client consultation.

For example, influential factors that are related to owners, managers and their experience are grouped together as “Ownership & Management”. Similarly, specific influential factors which can symbolise signs of vessel or fleet over usage (such as high mileage and numbers of port visits) are grouped together to form “Vessel Utilisation & Port Activity”.

 

How does the status and overall weight of each risk driver get determined?

The overall status is the net impact of the risk driver on a vessel’s risk score. A risk driver is a group of influential factors, which can be either positive or negative, and offset each other. The relative contribution of positive and negative influential factors is clearly displayed. This lets you see both the final status, how it is derived., and whether it’s likely to change.

 

Screenshot 2021-06-30 at 17.24.21

Fig1: Risk drivers in Quest Marine Hull

 

How do I access the influential factors within each risk driver and get a better understanding of how those factors influence the risk of my vessel?

A granular view of risk is still available by clicking on the risk driver. Doing so will show the significant influential factors within that risk driver, and whether it has a positive or negative influence on risk.

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Fig 2: Analysis of an influential factor in Quest Marine Hull

 

Where do I find risk score, expected loss and adequacy now?

There has been no change to risk scores, expected loss and adequacy. All of these can be found on the Risk Assessment tab, with policy adequacy accessible through the forecasting button when viewing an account.

 

How does viewing the top ten influential factors across all categories (risk drivers) in one view benefit my analysis of risk?

Retaining this view means that those who are used to prior ways of working can still apply their workflows whilst adjusting to the new categorised view of risk. It also provides a different ‘summary view’ of risk, showing the most influential factors irrespective of category, or whether they have a positive or negative influence on risk.

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Fig 3: The top 10 influential factors for a risk in Quest Marine Hull

Risk drivers were introduced as part of the 6.3.0 update. Find out more about predictive analytics and pricing, Quest Marine, or get in touch below. 

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